By Vineet Kumar 
After two days of losses, the Nifty 50 managed to bounce back with modest gains on October 3, though it couldn’t climb back above its 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The index continues to form a lower high–lower low pattern for the third straight session, showing that the short-term trend still carries a hint of weakness — but it’s important to note that Nifty is comfortably holding above the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, which act as crucial support zones.
From a technical standpoint, the RSI at 58.99 and the Stochastic RSI have indicated a bearish crossover, while the MACD is just about to turn negative with a flat histogram — suggesting that the market might move into a consolidation phase rather than a steep correction.
Adding to the cautious sentiment, the India VIX, also known as the fear gauge, jumped for the sixth consecutive session. It surged 4.22% to 12.67, its highest closing level since June 30, nearing the 200-day EMA zone around 13. This steady rise in volatility signals that traders are becoming slightly nervous at higher levels.
Experts believe that the Nifty 50 is likely to consolidate within a tight range in the coming sessions. The index has immediate support placed between 25,650 and 25,600, while resistance is seen around 25,800–25,950. A decisive move above 25,950 could open the door for an upside toward 26,000–26,100, whereas a breakdown below 25,600 might trigger a slide toward 25,500.
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Nifty Technical Analysis: Price Action Hints at a Healthy Retest
The Nifty 50 traded in a narrow 100–150 point range throughout the session before closing the day at 25,763, up 41 points. The daily candle formation was a bullish candle with small upper and lower shadows, reflecting a mildly positive bias amid volatility.
Even though the broader structure hasn’t changed much, the price action suggests that Nifty successfully defended its key support zone around 25,650–25,600 — a region that aligns with the June swing high near 25,670 and the 20-DEMA support.
“It’s common for prices to retest breakout zones before resuming an uptrend, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing on the charts now,” said Rajesh Bhosale, Equity Technical Analyst at Angel One.
Going forward, traders are advised to follow a buy-on-dips strategy, keeping 25,650–25,600 as the first line of support and 25,500 as a strong retracement level. On the upside, resistance remains at 25,900–26,000, while 26,200–26,300 continues to act as a major hurdle for the bulls.
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Options Data: 26,000 Remains a Strong Ceiling for Nifty
The weekly options data also paints a similar picture. The maximum Call open interest (OI) is concentrated at the 26,000 strike, followed by 25,900 and 26,100, showing that the market expects resistance around these levels.
Heavy Call writing was seen at 25,750, 25,800, and 25,850 strikes, further strengthening the overhead resistance zone.
On the flip side, the maximum Put OI is at the 25,700 strike, followed by 25,600 and 25,500, indicating that these levels are likely to act as strong supports.
Fresh Put writing at 25,700, 25,650, and 25,600 confirms that traders are defending these levels, suggesting a range-bound setup with a bullish bias unless the lower support breaks decisively.
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Key Takeaway
With India VIX inching toward a 4-month high and the MACD showing signs of weakening momentum, traders should brace for sideways movement and volatility in the near term. However, as long as Nifty 50 holds above the 20-DEMA (around 25,650), the broader uptrend remains intact.
In short — stay cautious but continue the buy-on-dips approach.