By Vineet Kumar 
In October, India’s merchandise trade deficit grew significantly, reaching $27.1 billion. This shift was fueled by a strong rebound in exports, which rose 17.3% to $39.2 billion, alongside a modest 3.9% increase in imports, bringing them to $66.34 billion. In contrast, September’s numbers showed exports at $34.58 billion and imports at $55.36 billion, marking a notable change in just one month.
Looking ahead, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has adjusted its trade growth predictions. For 2024, the WTO now forecasts a slightly improved global merchandise trade growth of 2.7%, up from its previous 2.6% estimate. However, they have tempered expectations for 2025, downgrading the growth projection from 3.3% to 3%. This cautious outlook highlights the weight of current global risks, especially regional conflicts and geopolitical tensions that could disrupt trade routes and drive up energy prices.
For example, if the situation in West Asia escalates, it could impact not only local trade but also major global shipping routes, raising transportation costs and slowing down the flow of goods. Higher energy prices—think of rising gasoline or fuel costs—could hit importing economies hard, reducing consumer purchasing power and slowing economic growth.
Earlier in 2023, global trade had been weak, with a 1.1% drop as inflation and rising interest rates weighed heavily on economies. Now, trade growth is beginning to recover, as seen by the 2.3% year-on-year increase during the first half of 2024, although uncertainties continue to linger.
