Technical Analysis: Nifty & Bank Nifty Outlook
Nifty 50: Bullish Momentum Holds
The Nifty 50 continues to display a bullish bias as long as it holds above the critical support level of 24,000. On the higher side, immediate resistance is expected at 24,500, followed by a crucial resistance zone at 25,000, as indicated by monthly options data.
In the latest trading session, the index witnessed a strong gap-up opening, largely driven by the BJP-led Mahayuti’s decisive victory in the Maharashtra assembly elections. This propelled the Nifty into the upper Bollinger Band range, reinforcing a healthy uptrend with 24,000 now acting as a firm support level.
The index closed at 24,222, up by 315 points or 1.32%, after opening 350 points higher at 24,254. Despite the gains, the formation of a High Wave-like candlestick pattern on the daily chart suggests indecision among traders.
Key levels to watch:
Resistance: 24,400 (50-day EMA) and 24,550 (current month’s high).
Support: Below 24,000, the 23,950-23,850 range could provide a cushion.
RSI & Moving Averages: Signals of Strength
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbed above 50 with a positive crossover, signaling improving momentum. Additionally, the Nifty moving above its 21-day EMA reflects a short-term bullish sentiment, with dips likely to attract buying interest.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, highlighted that a decisive move above 24,500 could trigger a fresh rally toward 25,000. “Support is firmly placed in the 23,950-24,000 zone,” he added.
Options Analysis: Critical Zones
Call Open Interest: Maximum at 25,000, followed by 24,500 and 24,300 strikes, indicating strong resistance levels.
Put Open Interest: Maximum at 23,000, with notable activity at 23,500 and 24,300, indicating strong support zones.
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Bank Nifty: Momentum Sustains Above 52,000
Bank Nifty extended its gains with a robust gap-up opening of 911 points, climbing to an intraday high of 52,300 before consolidating around the 52,000 zone. The index eventually closed at 52,208, up by 1,072 points or 2.10%, forming a small bullish candlestick pattern on the daily chart.
Key technical indicators signal sustained bullish momentum:
The index has moved above all key moving averages.
RSI shows a positive crossover, supporting an upward trajectory.
Chandan Taparia, Senior VP and Analyst-Derivatives at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, emphasized that 52,000 is the critical level to hold for further gains. “If sustained, Bank Nifty could test 52,750, followed by 53,000, while support lies at 51,750-51,500,” he stated.
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Volatility Index (India VIX): Cooling Off
India VIX dropped by 4.94% to 15.30, signaling reduced market fear after a recent spike. However, its current level suggests caution as it remains in the higher range.
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Summary
Nifty 50: Bullish above 24,000; resistance at 24,500-25,000.
Bank Nifty: Positive bias above 52,000, with potential targets at 52,750-53,000.
Strategy: Buy on dips as long as key support levels hold
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